The clock is ticking

With less than a month left for the constitutional referendum to take place, voices still rise calling Bujumbura to stop this process. An unsuccessful request so far.

The population is called to the constitutional referendum on May 17th.

It only remains a few weeks before the constitutional referendum takes place. The electoral commission is active to meet the deadline scheduled for May 17.

The process seems far from being unanimous. During this week, a memorandum by the leaders of the internal opposition, as well as a joint publication of the African Union Commission and the United Nations were released. They are all concerned about the current process.

The memorandum is addressed to the bosses of the African Union, the EAC, the African Union Commission and the Secretary-General of the United Nations. For this opposition, the draft revision definitively buries the Arusha Agreement and bids a farewell to “the political and ethnic minorities” within state institutions. For them, the salvation of the Burundian people rests on their united and determined commitment.

On Monday, April 16, the African Union Commission and the United Nations released a joint statement denouncing the intransigence of the Burundian government. These organizations made it clear that the new Constitution would definitively bury the Arusha Agreement. They are also concerned about the Government’s decision to not participate in the dialogue organized by the Facilitation office. The statement was later withdrawn in the afternoon of the same day. Is it a lack of coordination between these institutions or a protest by the mediation office that negotiates with Bujumbura behind the scenes? At the moment it’s hard to tell.

However, the government has not neglected this publication. The following day, it released a protest statement. It ensured its participation in the inter-Burundian dialogue led by the facilitator Benjamin Mkapa on one condition: “The dialogue should not disrupt the activities of the national scope already scheduled. He also indicates that the Arusha Agreement remains the foundation that has served to build the draft Constitution proposed in the referendum to be amended very soon.

All this does not augur well for the dialogue session scheduled for 25 April in Uganda. The facilitation office will not hold talks without the presence of the government and the ruling party.

Reactions

Gaston Sindimwo: “The Burundian population is the first guarantor of the Arusha Agreement “

Concerning the constitutional amendment, the First Vice-President of the Republic of Burundi demands that the international community respect the principle of sovereignty. Gaston Sindimwo believes that the provisions on ethnic quotas so dear to the Arusha Agreement have been kept in this new Constitution.

“The Burundian population is the first guarantor of the Constitution and the Arusha Agreement.” As for the opposition leaders who wrote this memorandum, Gaston Sindimwo says they are making a fool of themselves in the eyes of the world.

“If they campaign against the referendum and win, the government will take note of the fact”.

Jean Minani: “The international community must do everything to stop the process”

The president of CNARED ,the coalition of the opposition in exile, feels that this platform has fully played its role by exposing all the crimes against humanity and other crimes committed by the power in place. He regrets that the international community cannot stop the referendum of all the dangers that the government has just convened for May 17, 2018. Jean Minani calls on the international community to do everything possible to stop the process that will plunge the country into chaos. “It must not wait for the worst to happen.”

Vital Nshimirimana: “The international community must break the silence”

This activist believes that all the causes that plunged the country into a decade of civil war will be revived with the draft revision of the Constitution. It is up to the Burundian people to stand up to prevent the country from sinking. For Vital Nshimirimana, the international community must also show solidarity and responsibility. It must break the silence to stop this project and prevent the Burundian people from finding themselves into a bloody conflict.

Pierre Claver Kazihise: “Politicians must not decide for the people”

The coordinator of SOCIC, a local civil society, says the dialogue should not take precedence over the referendum.

“Priority must be given to the nationwide activity which is the referendum. Pierre Claver Kazihise says politicians should not take precedence over the population. “It is impossible for them to decide for us. As for the opponents who ask the international community to stop the referendum process, he thinks they have mistaken the addressee. They should address the people.

Analysis / Tick-tock

Tick-tock. Tick-tock. The clock is ticking. Only few weeks remain for the constitutional referendum to take place. Everything makes one believe that nothing will stop the already ongoing process. Bujumbura government seems to minimize the efforts of the internal and external opposition to stop the process.

The international community that seemed to have woken up on Monday backtracked. The African Union Commission and the United Nations, however, had expressed in their statement on Monday, their determination to fully assume their responsibilities as “guarantors” of the Arusha Agreement. Why have they backtracked and removed the press release? In any case, it seems to be in favor of Bujumbura, which is continuing its project without major obstacles.

This process of revision of the Constitution is crucial for the country’s future. As a reminder, there is this possibility for the current president to stay in power for another 14 years among the major changes, A bitter pill to swallow for the opposition and civil society that opposed his term of office in 2015, describing it as unconstitutional.

As for the dialogue session scheduled for 25 April in Uganda, it is hard to believe that it will take place. Bujumbura government as well as the Forum of political parties have already reached an agreement. No participation in any talks before the referendum.

Beyond this session, which observers describe as a last chance, the very future of the inter-Burundian dialogue ensured by the facilitation of Mkapa is threatened. The opposition in exile has already made clear its position. It will no longer participate in the dialogue if the referendum is held. Moreover, with the revision of the Constitution, the room for maneuver of mediation will be even smaller. Without deluding oneself, it is very difficult for a dialogue, which is struggling to progress, to succeed in these conditions…

Written by Agnès Ndirubusa and translated by Pierre Emmanuel Ngendakumana